Investment Return Comparison

See how different expected investment returns affect your long-term financial outcomes.

📊 Compare Scenarios 📈 Explore Outcomes

Simulation Overview

This simulation varies a single parameter while keeping all other assumptions constant.

Base scenario assumptions

  • The simulation starts at age 30 and runs until age 65.
  • The initial annual income is €20,000.
  • Income grows annually at an average rate of 2%.
  • An income tax rate of 10% is applied to gross income.
  • The saving rate is set to 5%.
  • Minimum annual living expenses are €14,000.
  • Savings are invested with stochastic annual returns.
  • The average annual return is 5%, with year-to-year variability.
  • All values are expressed in real terms, assuming average annual inflation of 2%.
  • The simulation includes stochastic life events such as unemployment, and health issue.
  • These events may temporarily affect income, expenses, or net worth.
  • Financial independence is defined as having net worth equal to 25 times annual expenses.
  • Bankruptcy is triggered if net worth remains below €0 for 2 consecutive years.
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Varied parameter
Investment return (expected) 3% → 7%

Scenario Comparison

Results are shown as a realistic range. P10 represents a pessimistic outcome (bad years, poor returns), while P90 represents an optimistic outcome (strong markets, good timing). Most simulations fall between these two values.

ScenarioMedian Net WorthP10 Net WorthP90 Net WorthFI ProbabilityFI Median Age
3% 69,905.465 44,932.943 108,158.686 0% None
5% 101,739.16 64,501.818 160,726.23200000002 0% None
7% 152,220.15999999997 95,658.06300000001 248,146.288 2% 63

How Your Financial Life Evolves

These charts show how each scenario affects long-term outcomes, including expected wealth, downside risk, and the likelihood of achieving financial independence.

Median net worth

Median net worth for different scenarios

Net worth outcome range (p10–p90)

Range of possible net worth outcomes

Financial independence probability

Probability of reaching financial independence

Median age of financial independence

Median age at which financial independence is reached

What This Means for You

The numbers above translate into real-life trade-offs between risk, reward, and the age at which financial independence becomes most likely.

Next Step

Want to explore a different assumption or see how sensitive your plan is to change?

🔁 Adjust Investment Return